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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 19

New York Jets 6 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(11:05) 9-S.Ficken 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.15 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 19, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 29, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model