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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 40

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 4-L.Edwards punts 36 yards to MIA 4, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-17-V.Smith.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.99 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 40, worth -1.71 EP
KICK -0.05 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP