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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 14

New York Jets 16 – Miami Dolphins 12

What Actually Happened

(1:06) 69-C.McDermott reported in as eligible. 29-B.Powell left guard to MIA 14 for no gain (24-R.Lewis; 52-R.McMillan).

The Three Options

GO +3.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.12 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 14, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model