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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 35

Miami Dolphins 12 – New York Jets 16

What Actually Happened

(10:56) 7-J.Sanders 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.32 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 35, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model