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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 19

Miami Dolphins 18 – New York Jets 19

What Actually Happened

(1:37) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +3.59 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 19, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model