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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 4

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(3:10) 7-J.Sanders 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.58 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 4, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP