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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 16 at the 16

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 4-J.Elliott 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 16, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 26, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model