Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 67

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(4:00) 1-C.Johnston punts 58 yards to NYG 9, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-50-D.Riley. PENALTY on NYG-23-S.Beal, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at NYG 9.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.99 EP
55% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 67, worth -3.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model