4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 52

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 1-C.Johnston punts 36 yards to NYG 16, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-49-A.Singleton.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.55 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 52, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP