Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 84

New York Giants 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

(7:17) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to PHI 42, Center-69-C.Holba, downed by NYG-30-A.Hamilton.

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.52 EP
56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 84, worth -5.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model