Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 79

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(9:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to PHI 34, Center-69-C.Holba, downed by NYG-30-A.Hamilton.

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.63 EP
62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 79, worth -4.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model