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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 59

New York Giants 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to PHI 13, Center-69-C.Holba, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.45 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 59, worth -3.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model