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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 29

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(10:00) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.73 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 29, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 39, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model