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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 68

New York Giants 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(1:32) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to PHI 24, Center-69-C.Holba, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.14 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 68, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 26, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model