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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 43

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(6:07) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to PHI 3, Center-69-C.Holba, downed by NYG-37-J.Allen.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.57 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 43, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.11 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model