4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 12

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(11:19) 5-Z.Gonzalez 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.89 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model