Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 17 at the 72

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

(12:32) 4-A.Lee punts 51 yards to PIT 21, Center-46-A.Brewer. 18-D.Johnson to PIT 22 for 1 yard (38-C.Banjo).

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.86 EP
74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model