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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 79

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 4-J.Berry punts 69 yards to ARI 10, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-P.Cooper to ARI 39 for 29 yards (41-R.Spillane).

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.76 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 79, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.20 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 36, worth -2.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP