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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 6

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(12:33) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 87-M.Williams INTERCEPTED by 90-T.Watt at PIT 0. Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +3.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.88 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 6, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model