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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 60

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(8:13) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 4-J.Berry. 4-J.Berry up the middle to PIT 32 for -8 yards (81-D.Daniels, 42-D.Gardeck). FUMBLES (81-D.Daniels), RECOVERED by ARI-42-D.Gardeck at PIT 32.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.41 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 60, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 19, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model