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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 17 at the 82

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 23

What Actually Happened

(:48) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Haden [90-T.Watt] at ARI 46. 23-J.Haden to ARI 46 for no gain (13-C.Kirk).

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.69 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 82, worth -1.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 40, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.58 EP