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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 12

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(4:24) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.26 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 22, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP