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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 75

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:13) 4-A.Lee punts 60 yards to PIT 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 18-D.Johnson for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.68 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model