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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 45

Green Bay Packers 14 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:37) 6-J.Scott punts 40 yards to WAS 5, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 15-S.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.67 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP