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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 36

Green Bay Packers 14 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(1:05) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams ran ob at WAS 27 for 9 yards (20-L.Collins).

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.62 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 36, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model