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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 28

Green Bay Packers 14 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(12:30) 30-J.Williams left guard to WAS 21 for 7 yards (55-C.Holcomb; 54-N.Orchard).

The Three Options

GO +2.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.27 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 38, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model