Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 19 at the 84

Washington Commanders 6 – Green Bay Packers 17

(8:09) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to GB 40, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 32-T.Ervin to WAS 49 for 11 yards (39-J.Reaves).

The Three Options

GO -3.39 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
75% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 84, worth -5.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model