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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 44

Green Bay Packers 17 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(6:52) 6-J.Scott punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-43-H.Bradley, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.42 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.79 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP