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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 34

Washington Commanders 6 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(:16) 3-D.Hopkins 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.25 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model