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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 64

Green Bay Packers 17 – Washington Commanders 9

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 6-J.Scott punts 40 yards to WAS 24, Center-43-H.Bradley. 15-S.Sims to WAS 30 for 6 yards (35-I.Campbell; 25-W.Redmond).

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.32 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 64, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 22, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model