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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 15

Green Bay Packers 17 – Washington Commanders 9

What Actually Happened

(2:38) 2-M.Crosby 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +2.82 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 15, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.88 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP