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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 36

Green Bay Packers 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(5:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.90 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 36, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model