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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 12

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 15-E.Pineiro 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.30 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model