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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 34

Chicago Bears 3 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(9:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short middle to 12-A.Robinson.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.21 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model