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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 67

Chicago Bears 3 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(6:56) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to GB 25, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 32-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.15 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP