Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 62

Green Bay Packers 21 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 6-J.Scott punts 41 yards to CHI 21, Center-43-H.Bradley. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 32 for 11 yards (42-O.Burks). PENALTY on CHI-22-K.Toliver, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 26.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.52 EP
59% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 62, worth -3.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model