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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 9

Chicago Bears 3 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 15-E.Pineiro 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.07 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP