Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 70

Green Bay Packers 21 – Chicago Bears 6

(13:20) 6-J.Scott punts 37 yards to CHI 33, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.86 EP
52% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 70, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model