4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 54

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 6-J.Scott punts 43 yards to CHI 11, Center-43-H.Bradley. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 25 for 14 yards (30-J.Williams; 43-H.Bradley).

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.08 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 54, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 16, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model