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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 15 at the 38

Green Bay Packers 21 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(4:19) 6-J.Scott punts 33 yards to CHI 5, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-25-W.Redmond.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.17 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 38, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 47, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.62 EP