Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 52

Green Bay Packers 21 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(:44) 6-J.Scott punts 30 yards to CHI 22, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +0.50 EP
67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 52, worth -1.03 EP

KICK -0.15 EP

23% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
77% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model