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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 58

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:06) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 33 yards to GB 25, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.30 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model