Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 74

Cleveland Browns 17 – Arizona Cardinals 21

(4:54) 7-J.Gillan punts 35 yards to ARI 39, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.36 EP
58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model