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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 27

Cleveland Browns 17 – Arizona Cardinals 28

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 4-A.Seibert 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.26 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 27, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 37, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP