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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 3

Arizona Cardinals 35 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(5:21) 5-Z.Gonzalez 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +2.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.15 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 3, worth +0.25 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP