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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 46

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 4-A.Lee punts 31 yards to CLE 15, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 25-D.Hilliard.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.36 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.23 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT +0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 13, worth +0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model