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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 83

Cleveland Browns 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(:33) 7-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to ARI 35, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-P.Cooper to ARI 33 for -2 yards (55-T.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.33 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 83, worth -4.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 41, worth -2.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model