4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 37

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(1:14) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern pass incomplete deep right to 29-D.Cruikshank (32-L.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.96 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model