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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Tennessee Titans
4th & 1 at the 1
Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 14
What Actually Happened
(5:40) 17-R.Tannehill left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+4.23 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.15 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 1, worth +0.53 EP
KICK
+2.17 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT
+0.12 EP
- Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
