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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 59

Tennessee Titans 14 – Houston Texans 21

What Actually Happened

(8:59) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to HOU 9, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-29-D.Cruikshank.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.64 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 59, worth -2.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model